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Canadian Housing Starts Trend Stable in March
4/10/2018 | Posted in Canadian Housing Market by Paul DeAdder | Back to Main Blog Page
The trend in housing starts was 226,842 units in March 2018, compared to 225,804 units in February 2018, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.
"In March, the national trend in housing starts was stable for the fifth consecutive month, as diverging trends for multi-unit and single-detached dwellings continue to offset each other," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "Over this period, multi-unit starts have trended higher in most major urban centres while single-detached starts have trended lower."
Monthly Highlights
Vancouver
Rising March housing starts capped off a strong first quarter in starts in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). Starts of multifamily condominium and rental units led the increase, with activity concentrated in the core areas of the City of Vancouver,Richmond, and North Vancouver in the first quarter of this year. Demand for new homes continues to be supported by strong migration, household formation and employment growth in the region.
Victoria
Housing starts in Metro Victoria appear to be moving in different directions with single-detached and apartment units diverging. Overall, the total starts are trending downward from a peak in late 2017. However, apartment starts were 77% above theMarch 2017 year-to-date figures, while single-detached starts were down 32%. Inventory in single-detached units has shown signs of accumulation but remains below average.
Edmonton
Housing starts in the Edmonton CMA continued to trend lower in March due in part to a declining trend in multi-family construction where inventory levels remain elevated. Weakness in multi-family construction lowered actual total housing starts for the month of March, down 44% compared to March of last year.
Toronto
Led by condominium apartment starts, the total number of housing starts in the Toronto CMA trended up to reach a seven month high during March. Relatively affordable prices of condominium apartments continued to draw price weary buyers towards purchasing pre-construction units, particularly within the City of Toronto, and thus drove up their construction. High house prices and tighter borrowing conditions weighed on demand for single and semi-detached homes and consequently, their starts trended lower.
St. Catharines-Niagara
The St. Catharines-Niagara CMA saw 165 total actual starts in March, the highest recorded for the month since 1992. The trend towards relatively more affordable higher-density housing continued with multi-units accounting for 73% of total starts, up from 41% last March. Weaker employment conditions and rising housing prices continue to favour a mix toward more affordable housing driving multi-unit starts.
Brantford
Housing starts trended up in Brantford due to single-detached starts, which were already high in January and February. The strong March allowed single-detached starts to reach its highest first quarter total in over 10 years. A primary driver behind the increased demand for new single-detached homes in Brantford has been Greater Toronto and Hamilton area buyers seeking more affordable housing options.
Province of Québec
The level of housing starts for the total aggregate of Quebec's urban centres remained stable in the first quarter, in both the single-detached home and multi-unit housing segments. Apartment starts decreased in all of the province's census metropolitan areas (CMAs) except in the Québec CMA, where an increase was recorded in the first quarter. The increase for that segment in the Québec CMA offset the decreases in the other CMAs of the province.
Halifax
The single-detached market in Halifax continues to expand over the first quarter, up 42% compared to the same period last year. Despite the price differential, with the number of active listings on the resale market remaining low, buyers may be increasingly looking to the new home market to meet their purchasing needs. On the contrary, construction in the typically busy multiples market has slowed over the first quarter, down 37% year-over-year.
CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.
The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 225,213 units in March, down from 231,026 units in February. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 2.8% in March to 208,237 units. Multiple urban starts decreased by 7.3% to 144,578 units in March while single-detached urban starts increased by 9.5% to 63,659 units.
Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16,976 units.
|
Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over |
||||||||||
|
Single-Detached |
All Others |
Total |
||||||||
|
March 2017 |
March 2018 |
% |
March 2017 |
March 2018 |
% |
March 2017 |
March 2018 |
% |
||
|
Provinces (10,000+) |
||||||||||
|
N.-L. |
8 |
13 |
63 |
13 |
93 |
## |
21 |
106 |
405 |
|
|
P.E.I. |
20 |
12 |
-40 |
2 |
6 |
200 |
22 |
18 |
-18 |
|
|
N.S. |
61 |
99 |
62 |
10 |
25 |
150 |
71 |
124 |
75 |
|
|
N.B. |
5 |
7 |
40 |
55 |
3 |
-95 |
60 |
10 |
-83 |
|
|
Atlantic |
94 |
131 |
39 |
80 |
127 |
59 |
174 |
258 |
48 |
|
|
Qc |
378 |
388 |
3 |
2,958 |
2,449 |
-17 |
3,336 |
2,837 |
-15 |
|
|
Ont. |
1,605 |
1,458 |
-9 |
4,080 |
3,435 |
-16 |
5,685 |
4,893 |
-14 |
|
|
Man. |
254 |
180 |
-29 |
283 |
371 |
31 |
537 |
551 |
3 |
|
|
Sask. |
134 |
79 |
-41 |
153 |
24 |
-84 |
287 |
103 |
-64 |
|
|
Alta. |
719 |
801 |
11 |
1,801 |
1,091 |
-39 |
2,520 |
1,892 |
-25 |
|
|
Prairies |
1,107 |
1,060 |
-4 |
2,237 |
1,486 |
-34 |
3,344 |
2,546 |
-24 |
|
|
B.C. |
847 |
666 |
-21 |
2,741 |
3,080 |
12 |
3,588 |
3,746 |
4 |
|
|
Canada (10,000+) |
4,031 |
3,703 |
-8 |
12,096 |
10,577 |
-13 |
16,127 |
14,280 |
-11 |
|
|
Metropolitan Areas |
||||||||||
|
Abbotsford-Mission |
44 |
19 |
-57 |
78 |
79 |
1 |
122 |
98 |
-20 |
|
|
Barrie |
10 |
35 |
250 |
123 |
26 |
-79 |
133 |
61 |
-54 |
|
|
Belleville |
16 |
13 |
-19 |
11 |
6 |
-45 |
27 |
19 |
-30 |
|
|
Brantford |
11 |
32 |
191 |
4 |
4 |
- |
15 |
36 |
140 |
|
|
Calgary |
283 |
306 |
8 |
862 |
525 |
-39 |
1,145 |
831 |
-27 |
|
|
Edmonton |
280 |
368 |
31 |
880 |
280 |
-68 |
1,160 |
648 |
-44 |
|
|
Greater Sudbury |
1 |
0 |
-100 |
0 |
0 |
- |
1 |
0 |
-100 |
|
|
Guelph |
15 |
10 |
-33 |
108 |
60 |
-44 |
123 |
70 |
-43 |
|
|
Halifax |
26 |
41 |
58 |
2 |
16 |
## |
28 |
57 |
104 |
|
|
Hamilton |
25 |
19 |
-24 |
62 |
58 |
-6 |
87 |
77 |
-11 |
|
|
Kelowna |
61 |
53 |
-13 |
441 |
108 |
-76 |
502 |
161 |
-68 |
|
|
Kingston |
10 |
24 |
140 |
3 |
4 |
33 |
13 |
28 |
115 |
|
|
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo |
132 |
102 |
-23 |
47 |
319 |
## |
179 |
421 |
135 |
|
|
Lethbridge |
41 |
26 |
-37 |
18 |
15 |
-17 |
59 |
41 |
-31 |
|
|
London |
114 |
122 |
7 |
125 |
23 |
-82 |
239 |
145 |
-39 |
|
|
Moncton |
1 |
2 |
100 |
55 |
2 |
-96 |
56 |
4 |
-93 |
|
|
Montréal |
163 |
154 |
-6 |
2,048 |
1,475 |
-28 |
2,211 |
1,629 |
-26 |
|
|
Oshawa |
130 |
105 |
-19 |
16 |
66 |
313 |
146 |
171 |
17 |
|
|
Ottawa-Gatineau |
127 |
201 |
58 |
429 |
241 |
-44 |
556 |
442 |
-21 |
|
|
Gatineau |
23 |
23 |
- |
322 |
32 |
-90 |
345 |
55 |
-84 |
|
|
Ottawa |
104 |
178 |
71 |
107 |
209 |
95 |
211 |
387 |
83 |
|
|
Peterborough |
7 |
8 |
14 |
2 |
0 |
-100 |
9 |
8 |
-11 |
|
|
Québec |
53 |
71 |
34 |
199 |
482 |
142 |
252 |
553 |
119 |
|
|
Regina |
52 |
36 |
-31 |
58 |
6 |
-90 |
110 |
42 |
-62 |
|
|
Saguenay |
5 |
6 |
20 |
26 |
16 |
-38 |
31 |
22 |
-29 |
|
|
St. Catharines-Niagara |
75 |
45 |
-40 |
52 |
120 |
131 |
127 |
165 |
30 |
|
|
Saint John |
2 |
3 |
50 |
0 |
0 |
- |
2 |
3 |
50 |
|
|
St. John's |
7 |
10 |
43 |
0 |
93 |
## |
7 |
103 |
## |
|
|
Saskatoon |
74 |
38 |
-49 |
93 |
13 |
-86 |
167 |
51 |
-69 |
|
|
Sherbrooke |
20 |
28 |
40 |
87 |
118 |
36 |
107 |
146 |
36 |
|
|
Thunder Bay |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
0 |
- |
0 |
0 |
- |
|
|
Toronto |
654 |
501 |
-23 |
3,190 |
2,376 |
-26 |
3,844 |
2,877 |
-25 |
|
|
Trois-Rivières |
10 |
9 |
-10 |
12 |
10 |
-17 |
22 |
19 |
-14 |
|
|
Vancouver |
442 |
326 |
-26 |
2,044 |
2,319 |
13 |
2,486 |
2,645 |
6 |
|
|
Victoria |
81 |
50 |
-38 |
79 |
254 |
222 |
160 |
304 |
90 |
|
|
Windsor |
58 |
22 |
-62 |
39 |
8 |
-79 |
97 |
30 |
-69 |
|
|
Winnipeg |
210 |
155 |
-26 |
274 |
335 |
22 |
484 |
490 |
1 |
|
|
Total |
3,240 |
2,940 |
-9 |
11,467 |
9,457 |
-18 |
14,707 |
12,397 |
-16 |
|
|
Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions. Data for 2018 based on 2016 Census Definitions. Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC ## not calculable / extreme value |
||||||||||
SOURCE: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" "width="100%"">
Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
Single-Detached
All Others
Total
February
2018
March
2018
%
February
2018
March
2018
%
February
2018
March
2018
%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.
777
829
7
28
5,054
##
805
5,883
##
P.E.I.
343
466
36
288
72
-75
631
538
-15
N.S.
1,966
1,979
1
2,339
521
-78
4,305
2,500
-42
N.B.
751
634
-16
162
183
13
913
817
-11
Qc
6,002
6,571
9
37,764
39,452
4
43,766
46,023
5
Ont.
25,544
27,605
8
77,301
43,983
-43
102,845
71,588
-30
Man.
2,200
2,670
21
2,112
4,452
111
4,312
7,122
65
Sask.
1,425
1,478
4
1,752
288
-84
3,177
1,766
-44
Alta.
10,559
11,903
13
11,432
13,468
18
21,991
25,371
15
B.C.
8,566
9,524
11
22,843
37,105
62
31,409
46,629
48
Canada (10,000+)
58,133
63,659
10
156,021
144,578
-7
214,154
208,237
-3
Canada (All Areas)
70,745
76,621
8
160,281
148,590
-7
231,026
225,213
-3
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission
373
308
-17
360
948
163
733
1,256
71
Barrie
2,325
1,273
-45
888
312
-65
3,213
1,585
-51
Belleville
510
724
42
0
72
##
510
796
56
Brantford
328
365
11
0
48
##
328
413
26
Calgary
4,138
4,268
3
3,384
6,300
86
7,522
10,568
40
Edmonton
4,874
5,075
4
5,844
3,360
-43
10,718
8,435
-21
Greater Sudbury
114
43
-62
0
0
-
114
43
-62
Guelph
121
175
45
432
720
67
553
895
62
Halifax
871
815
-6
1,632
192
-88
2,503
1,007
-60
Hamilton
1,145
332
-71
1,152
696
-40
2,297
1,028
-55
Kelowna
312
862
176
180
1,296
##
492
2,158
339
Kingston
289
511
77
192
48
-75
481
559
16
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo
1,757
1,667
-5
1,260
3,828
204
3,017
5,495
82
Lethbridge
416
410
-1
60
180
200
476
590
24
London
1,957
2,065
6
240
276
15
2,197
2,341
7
Moncton
319
302
-5
0
24
##
319
326
2
Montréal
2,609
2,589
-1
24,385
17,684
-27
26,994
20,273
-25
Oshawa
1,587
1,838
16
72
792
##
1,659
2,630
59
Ottawa-Gatineau
2,455
4,306
75
816
2,892
254
3,271
7,198
120
Gatineau
551
543
-1
120
384
220
671
927
38
Ottawa
1,904
3,763
98
696
2,508
260
2,600
6,271
141
Peterborough
645
633
-2
0
0
-
645
633
-2
Québec
263
989
276
504
5,784
##
767
6,773
##
Regina
526
476
-10
1,296
72
-94
1,822
548
-70
Saguenay
199
217
9
0
192
##
199
409
106
St. Catharines-Niagara
1,191
919
-23
816
1,440
76
2,007
2,359
18
Saint John
131
201
53
0
0
-
131
201
53
St. John's
587
548
-7
24
1,116
##
611
1,664
172
Saskatoon
686
750
9
396
156
-61
1,082
906
-16
Sherbrooke
244
352
44
996
1,416
42
1,240
1,768
43
Thunder Bay
136
135
-1
0
0
-
136
135
-1
Toronto
7,843
9,739
24
63,396
28,512
-55
71,239
38,251
-46
Trois-Rivières
393
264
-33
24
120
400
417
384
-8
Vancouver
4,088
4,600
13
16,164
27,828
72
20,252
32,428
60
Victoria
640
554
-13
3,132
3,048
-3
3,772
3,602
-5
Windsor
590
478
-19
516
96
-81
1,106
574
-48
Winnipeg
1,898
2,131
12
1,452
4,020
177
3,350
6,151
84
Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Data for 2018 based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value
